FAT-UK-30829 Oct 09

While the Western World is in recovery mode, individual economic strength varies from country to country. No more has this become clearer than the contrasting announcements from the US and the UK in the past seven days. The world’s largest economy grew by 3.5 percent in the September quarter, the first positive reading in more than a year. The UK economy meanwhile suffered a 0.4 percent contraction over the same period, extending the longest decline since 1955.

Having seen Asian powerhouse China post third quarter GDP growth of almost 9%, it is little wonder that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has more than doubled its forecast for Asian economic growth for 2009. Economic recovery throughout the region is gaining traction and Thailand is no exception. Its central bank has also raised its economic forecast for this year which bodes extremely well for our exposure to the developing economy which comes via Aberdeen New Thai Fund (LSE, ANW).

British Petroleum kicked off the third quarter results season for oil majors with some fanfare on Tuesday - surpassing all earnings expectations on the back of a 7 percent gain in third quarter output. And in so doing, delivering a further blow to those who would argue that production growth is maturing for ‘Big Oil’.

A further indication that equity markets are returning to ‘normality’ is a growing level of M&A activity. African focussed gold miner Randgold Resources (LSE, RRS) has never been the type to grow by acquisition, however earlier this month the miner completed the purchase of Moto Goldmines, a move which has bolstered the group’s gold reserve base at a time when the price of gold looks set for further strength.

There were no surprises in BHP’s 3Q09 production report, but BHP gives mixed signals for what it thinks about the global economy. The chairman has made very positive statements on emerging Asia, which contrast with cautions for Europe, Japan and USA. It is also noteworthy that the rate of recovery is expected to be very slow, even though exports of iron are and coal is robust.