AU Equities – April 2009
Our Australian stock portfolio only closed out three positions for the month of April, that being two positions in ERA and a scratched trade in IRE, meaning we were stopped out at breakeven (minus brokerage). In total, we booked a profit of AUD 501.49 for the month, or 0.88%.
As can be seen in the portfolio performance table, this takes our overall performance since Dec 1 to 15% after 17 trades. Our win rate remains just below 70%.
While it appears that there was little action this month, we also entered positions in OM Holdings, Independence Group, Atlas Iron, and a fourth position in Arrow Energy which continues to push strongly higher.
Closed Trades for April 2009
Portfolio Performance from 1 Dec 2008
Equity Chart from 1 Dec 2008
UK Equities – April 2009
We were a lot more active in the UK, closing out fourteen positions for the month of April. Despite showing a positive P/L by mid-April (with a win to loss ratio of 6:3), a succession of 5 losses then followed to push our monthly return over the line into the red. Disappointingly, we ended the month down GBP 94.38 or -0.42%.
On reflection, we had trailed our stop loss fairly tight with anticipation that the FTSE100 would pause or consolidate from its present rally. The blue-chip index however, showed greater strength than we initially thought. This unfortunately aggressive trade management resulted in our profitable trades being stopped out too early.
Closed Trades for April 2009
* P/L adjusted by GBP 105.721 for dividends received (7.7p*1373 shares held)
Portfolio Performance from 1 Dec 2008
Equity Chart from 1 Dec 2008
Global Markets – April 2009
Our Global Markets account was quiet this month and for good reason. With the majority of currencies and commodities churning sideways, there was little in terms of trading opportunities. As can be seen on the chart below, the US Dollar (DXY Index) spent most of the month steadily grinding higher in listless trade, correcting the March 09 reversal. This corrective phase produced chopping conditions and there was little point in putting any trades on. Because we are trend traders, when markets move sideways, we will sit on the sidelines.
However, May is a chance to see a resumption of the trend down in the US Dollar and some trades to match this view. We already have open positions in the GBP/USD and Oil, and two pending trade recommendations in gold.
On the commodities side, oil looks like it wants to rally and we are prepared to give the upside more consideration than the downside. However, natural gas is still in a bear market and we continue to watch for signs of a turn.
No trades were closed out for the month of April. As such, there is to change to our overall portfolio performance.
Portfolio Performance from 1 Dec 2008
Equity Chart from 1 Dec 2008
The Month Ahead
With regards to our outlook for the month of May, on the equities side, our preference is still trade on the long side, however, with the recent rally now spanning close to two months, we expect to see signs of exhaustion in some cases. Nevertheless, the buy recommendation should overweigh the sell recommendations by in large.
Our focus in both the UK and Australia remain with commodity stocks which should benefit from any USD weakness.
With the Global Markets account, a resumption of the downtrend in the US Dollar should present several trading opportunities in both Oil and Gold, as well as others currencies against the USD itself, namely the GBP and the Euro.
Happy trading!